Home > Local Transport Plans > Provisional LTP July 2005 (version for comments) > Strategy Development

Future Demands

<p id=“task_145_ID_1”><strong>The Scale and Distribution of New Development</strong></p> <p id=“task_145_ID_2”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> We have derived estimates of  future numbers of extra trips in order to illustrate that our longer-term strategy and five year implementation programme are consistent with longer term spatial policies at the regional level.  These estimates include the likely impact of proposals for new housing and employment opportunities up to 2011. </p> <div id=“task_145_ID_58”> <div class=“padding30” id=“task_145_ID_59”> <div class=“content” id=“task_145_ID_60”> <p id=“task_145_ID_35”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> <a href=”#task_145_ID_55”>Figure 2 ‘Housing SitesÂ’</a> and <a href=”#task_145_ID_56”>Figure 3 ‘Employment Forecast 2011Â’</a> illustrate the forecast changes in housing and employment.  It is provisionally estimated that some 242 million extra trips per annum will need to be accommodated by 2011, compared with 2001.  The proposals emerging from the two sub-regional studies and the Birmingham growth proposals are likely to change these forecasts. </p> </div> </div> </div> <p id=“task_145_ID_48”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> The above studies and the RSS have time horizons beyond this LTP.  Accomodating this additional growth and resultant trips will clearly provide a challenge, particularly if we are not to undermine our competitiveness and damage the environment.  As such, there is need to engage with partners in a debate as to what additional measures over and above those contained in this plan are likely to be required in the future both in terms of managing the use of our highways and providing high quality alternatives. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_4”><strong>Residential Development</strong></p> <p id=“task_145_ID_6”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> The proposed new housing sites identified through Unitary Development Plans and existing planning permissions is shown in <a href=”#task_145_ID_55”>Figure 2 ‘Housing SitesÂ’</a>.  The pattern illustrates the differences between parts of our area.  There are few larges sites in the Black Country and they are widely dispersed.  They are largely (90%) brownfield sites previously used for manufacturing or housing. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_7”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> The pattern of distribution shows an increasing proportion of new development in the centres of Birmingham, Coventry and Wolverhampton.  This development enables people to rely less on the private car.  Between the 2001 and 2011, the time period for which the most recent UDPs are available, some 20% of Birmingham’s new housing provision is scheduled to come forward in the City Centre.  Over the same time period, some 10% of Coventry and Wolverhampton’s requirement is also likely to forward in their respective city centres.  In all instances the appetite for city centre living, both on the part of developers and buyers, has increased in recent years and shows little sign of abating. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_8”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> Planning policies are now framed in order to increase the average density of residential development, with higher densities on radial routes, in centres and at key nodes in order to facilitate public transport use.  The allocation of 1,300 dwellings at Bilston Urban Village in Wolverhampton, next to Midland Metro line 1, is a prime example.  <a href=”#task_145_ID_57”>Figure 4 ‘Population Density 2001Â’</a> shows population density as at 2001. </p> <div id=“task_145_ID_46” class=“statement”> <h3>Evidence </h3> <p id=“task_145_ID_41”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> In the West Midlands, we implement planning and transport policies in an integrated and complementary manner.  Examples include: </p> <ul id=“task_145_ID_47”> <li>Average new build housing densities in the Metropolitan Area have increased from 41 to 54 dwellings per hectare between 1987 and 2004.  Higher densities in the right locations help improve the viability of public transport </li> <li>2002 and 2004 saw the highest proportion of new retail development (87% and 91% respectively) within or on the edge of town and city centres since we began monitoring in 1987.  Current commitments illustrate that this trend is continuing with 89% of future developments planned for within or on the edge of town and city centres.  This makes facilities easier to serve by public transport and increases accessibility to a wider range of people </li> </ul> </div> <p id=“task_145_ID_17”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> New growth proposals are being developed for Birmingham to complement the Sustainable Communities initiative of the ODPM.  Changes to the transport investment programme arising from these proposals will be incorporated in our March 2006 submission. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_43”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> Where public transport links are less good, or where there is a need to protect mature residential environments, planning policies are being revised to resist ‘intensificationÂ’ schemes that might reduce the local quality of the environment. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_44”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> The above demonstrates how this LTP2 is consistent with, and how the previous LTPs have influenced, other decisions of the Metropolitan Authorities.  Existing and proposed transport infrastructure and the consequences of travel needs are a strong influence on a variety of the AuthoritiesÂ’ decisions relating to housing, planning, economic development, education and social services. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_10”><strong>Employment Growth and Economic Development</strong></p> <p id=“task_145_ID_11”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> The West Midlands has undergone a radical change in employment structure, with a substantial shift of jobs from manufacturing to the service sector.  This has implications for the distribution of job-creating developments and associated trips. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_12”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> We have made employment forecasts using the reputable Oxford and Cambridge models, as part of the PRISM model development work.  The Metropolitan Authorities have jointly forecast the likely distribution of new jobs by 2011, based on known commitments and policy presumptions.  This is illustrated in <a href=”#task_145_ID_56”>Figure 3 ‘Employment Forecast 2011Â’</a>.  It is apparent that the service sector will continue to be the main source of new jobs, directed towards city and town centres. </p> <p align=“left” id=“task_145_ID_13”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> In the recent past, the development of the motorway box around Birmingham and Solihull pulled jobs to the edge of the conurbation.  Examples, all beside the M42, include: </p> <ul id=“task_145_ID_18”> <li>Birmingham Business Park, just north of Birmingham International Airport – 6,000 jobs growing to 8,000 by 2008/09</li> <li>BMW engine manufacturing plant at Hams Hall, Coleshill – 1,000 jobs</li> <li>Blythe Valley Business Park, Solihull  – 2,000 jobs growing to 7,000 when phase 2 is completed</li> </ul> <p id=“task_145_ID_22”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> These locations will continue to accommodate more jobs, but at a slower rate than in the past. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_14”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> The most significant employment growth outside existing centres has been at the BIA / NEC location (currently between 8,000 and 10,000 full time equivalent jobs).  This is now a major employment location with more growth forecast, particularly in the longer term if a second runway proceeds as advocated in the ‘Future of Air Travel’ White Paper. </p> <p id=“task_145_ID_15”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> Future growth forecasts have significant implications for transport policy and investment, and are reflected in our LTP2 programme.  Job growth in centres is more sustainable because these locations can be best accessed by high quality public transport.  However, unless more workers use public transport  there will be adverse impacts on air quality, congestion and the local economy.  </p> <div class=“orientation landscape”>  <div class=“columnspan all”>  <p id=“task_145_ID_53”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> <img alt=“Housing Sites” class=“figure” height=“420” id=“task_145_ID_55” src=“http://www.westmidlandsltp.gov.uk/2005/images/111.jpg” title=“Housing Sites” width=“594” border=“0px”></p> <div class=“pagebreak”> </div> <p id=“task_145_ID_28”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> <img alt=“Employment Forecast 2011” class=“figure” height=“420” id=“task_145_ID_56” src=“http://www.westmidlandsltp.gov.uk/2005/images/112.jpg” title=“Employment Forecast 2011” width=“594” border=“0px”></p> <div class=“pagebreak”> </div> <p id=“task_145_ID_30”><span style=“font-weight:bold;”></span> <img alt=“Population Density 2001” class=“figure” height=“420” id=“task_145_ID_57” src=“http://www.westmidlandsltp.gov.uk/2005/images/113.jpg” title=“Population Density 2001” width=“594” border=“0px”></p> </div> </div>