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Analysis Methodologies

This chapter outlines the scope and nature of the technical tools used in our analysis of problems and opportunities. By using extensive databases, we strive to avoid assumptions that may not be supported by evidence. Our principal analytical tool, the PRISM model, incorporates the possible impacts on businesses, public services, community organisations and the public.

Databases

The Metropolitan Authorities have long co-operated in monitoring and analysis of key statistics. This enables problems and trends to be identified, and schemes and policy interventions to be effectively targeted at both strategic and local levels.

A sophisticated web-based system (www.strat-e-gis.co.uk/spectrum) enables traffic surveys, road accident records and Census information for the West Midlands to be linked and analysed. These data sources are supplemented by specific surveys. We have also piloted the analysis of ITIS vehicle tracking data to improve the monitoring of congestion.

We have a GIS planning system which identifies and monitors development sites. It analyses information both at a regional level, and across the Metropolitan Area in greater detail. The system can, for example, focus on areas of deprivation.

Centro maintains a database of public transport information, including surveys of patronage, service reliability and punctuality, and use of Park & Ride facilities.

The Authorities hold databases on the condition of carriageways and footways which are based on regular monitoring, much of it jointly procured. The Authorities also have databases of highway structures, principally bridges, culverts and street lighting. These databases help to inform and prioritise maintenance programmes.

Predicting Future Issues

We have developed methodologies to enable future problems to be identified and to assess options for amelioration. These include:

These are described below:

In partnership with the HA, we have developed a sophisticated Model – PRISM. This enables the increasing pressures on the transport system by both population and economic growth to be taken into account. We have put the revised policies of the Regional Planning Guidance into PRISM, with the policies on reversing population dispersal and its attendant increases in commuting and car dependence being particularly relevant.

We have used PRISM in the strategic development of the LTP2. It has also provided a framework for establishing local models. These enable local assessment of the implications of area-wide programmes and individual schemes, taking account of future growth proposals, other policies and network changes. PRISM has also helped us prioritise our Major Schemes programme.

The formal issue of the Accession software and Guidance was delayed, but we have undertaken preparatory work to ensure that they can be used as soon as possible. We have initiated pilot studies on improving accessibility, particularly for those in deprived areas or without access to a car. These studies cover the East Birmingham / North Solihull Regeneration Zone, Walsall and Dudley. The outcomes will feed into our Accessibility Strategy.

We have established links between databases, models and other technical areas to enable future problems to be identified and addressed. An example is the joint working between Environmental Health Officers on quantifying and mapping noise and air pollution levels. The West Midlands is actively looking to link the PRISM and Air Viro models to be able to produce more accurate air quality forecasts in the future. Further modelling work is currently underway using Air Viro to explore the predicted levels of NO2 in 2011 in a ‘do nothing’ scenario. In due course this will help us to refine our existing air quality target: Reduce the average level of NO2 by 1% between 2004/05 and 2010/11 in the areas where NO2 exceeds the national objective

Each methodology helps to ensure that we balance value-for-money at the strategic level and achieve, as far as possible, the objectives and targets of the Transport Shared Priority, and for economic regeneration and quality of life.