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8.11 Unexpected effects and developments

Some developmentsin the period 2006-2011 are so uncertain that their effects cannot reasonablybe incorporated into the LTP. The examples below illustrate this issue:

Sulphur Free Fuel

By 1 January 2009, all EUmember states must ensure that only ‘sulphur free’ fuels are sold. These fuelshave sulphur levels below 10ppm, substantially below the limit of 50 ppm fortoday’s ‘Ultra Low Sulphur’ fuels.

Sulphur free fuels reduce air pollution from vehicles. Importantly, theyaffect emissions from both old and new vehicles, whereas new engine standardsonly affect emissions from newly registered vehicles. In addition, thewidespread availability of sulphur free fuels is a prerequisite for the use ofsome of the newest designs of low emission engine, so sales of these vehiclescurrently await the availability of these fuels in the UK.

There are two majoruncertainties concerning the introduction of sulphur free fuel:

(i) Sulphur free fuels arealready in widespread use on the continent. This may lead to some reductions inthe levels of background air pollution reaching the UK from the continent.

(ii) The Treasuryhad planned to speed the introduction of sulphur free fuel in the UK, as was donefor lead free fuels. The chosen mechanism was to be a duty reduction in theSpring 2004 budget. This measure is on hold, and it is not clear whether itwill be introduced.

The price of fuel

The prices of allroad fuels are variable over a period of as little as a few weeks. During 2005,fuel prices have reached record levels, in nominal prices. In real prices, fuelis close to its highest ever level.

The demand for eachmode of transport depends on price. High fuel prices can boost demand forpublic transport, in relative terms, whilst lowering demand for private roadtransport. In addition, high fuel prices can lead to reduced usage and scrappageof older vehicles of all types, which tend to be less fuel efficient. Suchreduced usage and scrappage affects noise, CO2, NOx,particulates emissions and accident severity.

There is noreliable way of forecasting the price of fuel over the period of the LTP. Sothe impacts of these various effects cannot reasonably be addressed in themeasures in the LTP.

Rate of renewal ofequipment

The scale andtrends of some key impacts of transport depends on the rate at which transportequipment is renewed. Here ‘transport equipment’ includes for example railwayrolling stock, and commercial vehicles such as buses and coaches. Thecontribution to air quality problems, noise levels and CO2emissions from these vehicles depends on their age.

However, thedecisions to renew equipment are usually made by private companies, and thetiming of these decisions is therefore unpredictable. 

The Environmental NoiseDirective

Article 8 of the ‘EnvironmentalNoise Directive’ requires the UKto produce an ‘action plan’ to tackle noise from all transport sources. Theaction plan for road sources must be complete by mid 2008, and is beingdeveloped by DEFRA. It is unclear what policy elements will be included in thisaction plan, and therefore what effects the plan will have on the WMMA.

Chosen measure ofparticulates

Medical opinion nowsuggests that particulates of less than 2.5 microns ‘PM2.5Â’, and those ofsub-micron size, are very important for their negative effects on humanhealth.  During the lifetime of the plan,it is conceivable that the emphasis in public health policy might move to PM2.5 oreven sub-micron sized particulates from all sources, rather than the currentemphasis on PM10 sized particles.

Future Demand Management Measures

WMMA are seekingfunding from the Government through the Transport Innovation Fund toinvestigate ways that demand management measures may contribute to alleviatingcongestion when combined with other measures such as improved public transport.It is unlikely that this will result in any significant changes through thelife of this LTP (up to 2011), but it may play a major role in future transportplanning with the WMMA.