Home > Associated groups > Strategic Environmental Assessment > Environmental Report > 3 Environmental and Planning Context
3.5 Evolution of the Baseline without the plan
The SEA regulations requires that information is provided on “… the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and *the likely evolution thereof without implementation of the plan*”
It is recognised that the future baseline or “without the plan scenario” in particular is difficult to describe as trend data is often not available. However, this section will attempt to describe the future baseline for each SEA topic.
For the purposes of this SEA, the ‘without the plan’ scenario has been
based on the following assumptions:
- The eight WMMA transport authorities will continue to perform their statutory transport duties as required by the legislation;
- Existing committed LTP major schemes are completed, as are committed components of the Integrated Transport Block.
Table 3-4 summarises this “without the plan” scenario.
Table 3-4 Evolution of the baseline without the plan
SEA Topic
Evolution of the baseline without the plan
Population
Increased focus upon accessibility and community severance is likely. Increasing elderly population with greater reliance upon “on demand” transport. Increasing risk of elderly population becoming housebound due to inaccessible transport. Increasing ill health due to lack of exercise and ailments such as diabetes.
Human Health
Increased attention likely to be given to transport noise. Continued efforts at reducing the number of people killed or injured on the transport system, Health services are likely to place increasing demands on patient transport services as medical practices change. Also greater movement to non-local hospitals increasingly likely.
Air Quality
Technological improvements will result in a gradual improvement in NO2 and PM10 levels, although this may be offset by growth in traffic and the speed at which it moves.
Climatic Factors
Increased temperatures and extreme weather is likely to increase the stress on transport infrastructure with periods in which availability may be threatened. Increase in the use of the private car will contribute towards increased CO2 emissions.
Landscape
~Townscape
The inexorable increase in transport infrastructure, signs etc., is likely to further degrade landscape interests. Townscapes may be enhanced as urban regeneration schemes seek comprehensive approaches that include transport enhancements across all modes.
Heritage
No change from existing trends, but perhaps less resource being available to support heritage initiatives.
Biodiversity
Asset surveys are likely to support recognition of biodiversity resource and lead to enhanced management practices.
Soil
Contaminated land will continue to be reduced in extent with the emphasis upon brownfield development.
Water
Highway runoff, Drainage capacity – particularly in light of the increased flooding risk (see climatic factors)
Material Assets
Without the recycling of aggregates the demands for primary aggregates will increase, as will the levels of material sent to landfill.
One of the key roles of LTP2 is to help implement the Regional Spatial Strategy and the Regional Economic Strategy. These two strategies seek to reverse the recent trend whereby population and jobs have decentralised from the WMMA to the surrounding shires.
This approach is expected to:
- Reduce pressures on greenfield sites in the shires
- Reduce the need for long-distance commuting and other journeys
- Encourage the regeneration of previously developed land and buildings within the WMMA
The preliminary modelling work undertaken by the Policy Responsive Integrated Strategy Model (PRISM), developed to assist with the preparation of LTP2, has indicated that the following socio-demographic changes will result, between a base year of 2001 and 2011 (Table 3-5) when compared to an ongoing continuation of the current decentralisation trends. The model also forecast that car
ownership will increase by 14% over the same time period.
Table 3-5 Population and Employment Change 2001 – 2011
Growth 2001 – 2011
RSS Policy
Decentralisation Trend
Population
3%
-2%
Employment
6%
4%
Such growth will lead to an increase in trip numbers within the WMMA; this is estimated to be in the region of 13%. Table 3-6 below, presented in the Provisional LTP, indicates the likely growth in trip numbers between 2001 and 2011. It also shows forecasts for the modal share of these trips, assuming that existing commitments are implemented (major schemes that are fully or provisionally approved and Integrated Transport Block funded schemes such as Bus Showcase). It also forecasts likely modal shift with a further 5% transfer based on ‘softer’ measures such as Safer Routes to School, Travel Planning and various promotions.
Table 3-6 Forecast Number of Trips (millions per year) (Source: W.Midlands LTP)
Scenario
Base (Surveys)
Forecast Growth
Committed Schemes Only
Committed Schemes with 5% Transfer
Trips
%
Trips
Difference
Transfer
Trips
Difference
Mode / Year
2001
2001-11
2011
2001-2011
2011
2011
2001-2011
Car
1,108.0
15%
1,274.2
166.2
-63.7
1,210.5
102.5
Bus
336.0
6%
356.2
20.2
29.0
385.2
49.2
Rail
24.8
33%
33.0
8.2
2.7
35.7
10.9
Metro
4.8
40%
6.7
1.9
0.5
7.3
2.5
Total Mech.
Mode
1,473.6
13%
1,670.1
196.5
-31.5
1,638.6
165.0
Walk & Cycle
341.2
13%
386.7
45.5
31.5
418.1
77.0
Grand Total
1,814.8
13%
2,056.7
242.0
0.0
2,056.7
242.0
Unfortunatelyit has not been possible to model in any depth what the likely mode of tripswould be without any interventions. Itdoes, however, seem reasonable to assume that car trips as a proportion of thetotal number of trips would increase between 2001 and 2011 rather than remainrelatively static or showing a slight decrease (in the case of the 5%transfer). This is largely due to the forecast increase in car ownership.
The consequenceof an increased number of car trips with no corresponding investment in anytransport infrastructure is likely to be higher levels of congestion, andpotentially adverse impacts on air quality and increased greenhouse gasemissions, as cars are not operating efficiently.