Final LTP March 2006

Analysis of Problems and Opportunities

Analysing the problems and opportunities to develop an evidence based strategy has underpinned the ongoing development of LTPs for the Metropolitan Area.  We have drawn on work undertaken as part of the Government supported multi modal study (WMAMMS), the work and conclusions arising from the development of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS), local studies such as the Coventry Area Network Study (CANS) and our modelling using the newly developed PRISM strategic transport model.  We have undertaken detailed work, using the Accession model and our own modelling to investigate accessibility shortcomings and opportunities.  Journey speed data from ITIS has also been used to support the analysis.

WMAMMS

The WMAMMS study (2001) examined in detail the consequences of different strategies over 30 years.  CANS followed a less extensive process which demonstrated that the broad conclusions from WMAMMS were also applicable to Coventry.  Both studies sought to develop the transport network to deliver a broad range of objectives which would enhance quality of life and support the emerging RSS.

WMAMMS confirmed that a strategy focused on any single mode, whether walking, cycling, road, bus, Metro or heavy rail, would fail to achieve the desired local and regional objectives.  It recommended a strategy balancing investment in transport infrastructure with significant behavioural changes and economic measures.

In his letter of July 2003, the Secretary of State recognised that 'the study has made a strong case for further improvements to the local transport network'.  He identified that we could use future funding for further extensions to the Metro system (included in LTP), a programme of super showcase routes  (Coventry Bus Rapid Transit included in LTP), Red Routes (included in LTP) and Park & Ride (Longbridge Strategic P&R included in the LTP).  On DfT advice, enhanced walking and cycling facilities will be provided through the Integrated Transport block.

The letter from the Secretary of State also invited the local authorities to carry out further development work on a number of local road improvements.  We have responded to this and included the Longbridge Link, Chester Road and Dudley Road schemes in the LTP in addition to others in the Black Country to enhance access to the Motorway network.  This reflects the decision not to support the Western By-pass proposals.

Hence the Major Scheme programme  directly reflects the outputs from WMAMMS and the Secretary of State's response, together with proposals that directly support regeneration, for example the i54 access to the Advantage West Midlands Wobaston Development site and the Minworth Link Road

WMAMMS considered a range of scenarios and concluded that a balanced package that included the major schemes proposed was the most appropriate way forward.  The main aim of the study was 'to develop a strategy to tackle congestion and capacity constraints on the road and public transport networks which impact on both regional and longer distance traffic' - which is still relevant today. 

Finally we have responded to the request to consider the recommendations for road charging by our TIF submission.

 In the light of this we believe that our programme has its roots in a rigorous technical study and that the Secretary of State was satisfied that the Major Scheme proposals therein formed part of a robust strategy.  Thus in this LTP2 we have not sought to revisit the approach accepted by the Secretary of State, other than by alignment with funding guidelines.

Regional Spatial Strategy / Regional Economic Strategy

The ambitions for the Region are set out in the RSS and RES and the key priorities can be summarised as:

• Urban Renaissance
• Rural Renaissance
• Modernising and diversifying the economy and creating a dynamic business base
• Upskilling the region's workforce
• Promoting the region's competitiveness and assets in a national and global setting.

Of particular importance to both is stopping the drift of people and jobs from our urban centres, creating unsustainable development patterns.  It identifies a series of measures and schemes that are needed to realise the strategy.  The Regional Assembly's Transport Delivery Plan has five priorities which are listed below together with examples of their associated LTP2 proposals:

• Promote a change of Hearts and minds of the region's population ('Smarter Choices')
• Make the best use of the existing regional transport network (Demand management , UTC, Red Routes, rail improvements including New Street Station capacity)
• Provide a comprehensive public transport system that serves urban areas (Metro, Bus Showcase, Park & Ride, interchange and quality improvements)
• Improve access to Birmingham International Airport and the National Exhibition Centre (Major Scheme, surface access strategy, longer term Metro and changes to support expansion, for example A45 realignment)
• Ensure that the West Midlands is a reliable hub to serve regional, national and international connections ('Gateway' proposals, Red Routes, joint working with Highways Agency)

The LTP programme and strategy support these priorities as well as strategic priorities of the RES of which the development of New Street Station and the regeneration of Birmingham Eastside are important examples.

Detailed consultation for the 2003 LTP, and the Provisional LTP (described in Chapter ‘Opportunities’) refined our knowledge, adding to the extensive work undertaken by WMAMMS.  A continuous dialogue has been maintained with key stakeholders to ensure that any changes in support for proposals are reflected.

Analysis for LTP - PRISM and Accession

Prior to the availability of PRISM and Accession our initial analysis was built on the evidence of responses to past initiatives, existing, less sophisticated models and was informed by  new information.

We have developed this work further to ensure that our evidence provides the best possible analysis of the consequences of different courses of action.

PRISM

We have invested considerable resources in jointly  developing with the Highways Agency what we believe is the most advanced transport model in the country (PRISM).  This seeks to model behavioural responses to a range of initiatives, including Integrated Transport Block proposals, Hearts and Minds initiatives and major scheme proposals.  Preliminary results have demonstrated the power of this model in refining our approach.  An understanding of behaviour and attitudes has been critical in developing the PRISM model.

We are using PRISM to make sure our LTP2 reflects changes which have emerged since WMAMMS.  We recognise the need to ensure the LTP2 is complementary to a range of regional and sub-regional strategies, for example housing, economic development and planning strategies. The impact of different scenarios has been modelled to ensure our investment plans can deliver the changes, for example in congestion, and air quality we seek.  Where possible we have also used PRISM to validate the targets we have set.

The strategic nature of the PRISM model means that it is not possible to assess the Integrated Transport Block Programme in detail.  Overall assessments of those elements that can be adequately modelled, for example further Bus Showcase Routes, Smarter Choices, together with major schemes already committed, for example. the Coventry Quality Bus Network, has been undertaken.  These indicate that car trips would rise compared with the 2001 level by around 8% compared with 15% without the proposed programme.  Similarly bus trips would increase by 10% compared to a forecast of 6%.

Accession

We have made full use of the Accession Model and undertaken local modelling, analysis and consultation to inform our accessibility planning work and develop our new Accessibility Strategy.  This seeks to overcome social exclusion problems associated with transport issues.  This has highlighted a need to address access to job centres and the provision of accessible public transport to serve hospitals as important strategic concerns.

ITIS

ITIS is a new tool, developed in the West Midlands and now being used nationally to measure congestion on the highway network.  It uses data from in vehicle GPS systems to measure speeds along different highway links.  With the increasing use of GPS we are now able to build up a more accurate and broader picture of congestion.  This helps us to target congestion reducing measures and pinpoint areas of stress where extra pressure from new development would cause particular problems.  This has been particularly important in developing our strategy and will be an important input to our TIF study.

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

The development of our Strategy has been informed by the undertaking of a thorough SEA and accompanying Environmental Report by independent consultants.  The purpose of this exercise, in accordance with European Directive 2001/42/EC, was to consider the environmental implications of the LTP2's policies and proposals and identify mitigation measures where there were adverse effects.  A requirement of the Directive is to consider these measures and broader recommendations and respond accordingly.  These responses are detailed in an SEA Statement which accompanies this final LTP2.

In many instances the SEA concluded that the LTP2 would have a number of positive environmental benefits, particularly in terms of supporting the Urban Renaissance as promoted through the RSS and helping to stem outward migration.  This in turn requires greater use of public transport and making better use of existing infrastructure rather than providing new infrastructure to support development further afield which is also like to foster greater car dependency.

A number of significantly adverse environmental effects have been identified namely light pollution, the impact of transport schemes on the Green Belt and climate change.  A number of other effects have also been identified.  The recommendations and mitigation measures have been considered carefully, consulted on with statutory consultees and other stakeholders and this final LTP2 has been amended accordingly.  These changes are also scheduled in the SEA Statement.

Equality Assessment

The provisional LTP was subjected to an independent Equalities Assessment, undertaken by SRA Ltd.  This has helped identify ways in which the process, policies and presentation of the LTP2 could be improved to enhance the quality of the final document.  A separate schedule identifies how we have responded to the issues raised.  A number of them are also covered by our developing  accessibility strategy, which was only at an early stage when the assessment was carried out.