Analysis Methodologies
This chapter outlines the scope and nature of the technical tools used in our analysis of problems and opportunities. By using extensive databases, and state of the art modelling we strive to avoid assumptions that may not be supported by evidence in developing our Strategy.
Databases
The Metropolitan Authorities have long co-operated in monitoring and analysis of key statistics. This enables problems and trends to be identified, and schemes and policy interventions to be effectively targeted at both strategic and local levels.
A sophisticated web-based system (www.strat-e-gis.co.uk/spectrum) enables traffic surveys, road accident records and Census information for the West Midlands to be linked and analysed. These data sources are supplemented by specific surveys. We have also piloted the analysis of ITIS vehicle tracking data to improve the monitoring of congestion.
We have a GIS planning system which identifies and monitors development sites. It analyses information both at a regional level, and across the Metropolitan Area in greater detail. The system can, for example, focus on areas of deprivation.
Centro maintains a database of public transport information, including surveys of patronage, service reliability and punctuality, and use of Park & Ride facilities, and local authorities hold information on parking availability and use.
The Authorities hold databases on the condition of carriageways and footways which are based on regular monitoring, much of it jointly procured. The Authorities also have databases of highway structures, principally bridges, culverts and street lighting. These databases help to inform and prioritise maintenance programmes.
Predicting Future Issues
We have developed methodologies to enable future problems to be identified and to assess options for amelioration. These include:
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transportation models
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accessibility studies
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other methodologies
These are described below:
(a) Transportation Models
Our principal analytical tool, the PRISM model, has been developed in partnership with the Highways Agency. PRISM is a sophisticated model involving a £4 million investment over four years, commencing with extensive traffic surveys that were carried out in 2001. The model has been used to evaluate alternative transport assessments for the period up to 2031. It has considered the effect of alternative transport and land use options including the effect of the revised policies of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RPG11) for reversing population dispersal, housing and employment. PRISM produces much more than just link based traffic flows; it produces outputs of projected noise levels, environmental pollutants, air quality, accessibility as well as all of the inputs required for scheme evaluation and economic assessment.
We have used PRISM in the strategic development of the LTP2. It has also provided a framework for establishing local models. These enable local assessment of the implications of area-wide programmes and individual schemes, taking account of future growth proposals, other policies and network changes. PRISM has also helped us prioritise our Major Schemes programme.
(b) Accessibility Studies
The formal issue of the Accession software and guidance was delayed. This together with initial problems it had with handling the amount of data required for our Area means we are not as far forward as we would like to be. However the strategic assessment has been completed and is detailed in the Accessibility Strategy and we are now focussing on more detailed examination of local issues.
In parallel with the accession work we initiated pilot studies on improving accessibility, particularly for those in deprived areas or without access to a car e.g. to health centres. These studies cover the East Birmingham / North Solihull Regeneration Zone, Walsall and Dudley. These have identified potential opportunities that have been reflected in the Accessibility strategy.
(c) Other Methodologies
We have established links between databases, models and other technical areas to enable future problems to be identified and addressed. An example is the joint working between Environmental Health Officers on quantifying and mapping noise and air pollution levels. We have linked the PRISM and Air Viro models so as to be able to produce more accurate air quality forecasts in the future. Further modelling work is currently underway using Air Viro to explore the predicted levels of NO2 in 2011 in a ‘do nothing’ scenario. In due course this will help us to refine our existing air quality target: to reduce the average level of NO2 by 1% between 2004/05 and 2010/11 in the areas where NO2 exceeds the national objective
Each methodology helps to ensure that we balance value-for-money at the strategic level and achieve, as far as possible, the objectives and targets of the Transport Shared Priority, and for economic regeneration and quality of life.